March 11, 2025
Tanker market fundamentals still positive, but geopolitical factors will have a large influence on spot rate direction in 2025.
The tanker market started 2025 on a soft note. However, fresh sanctions on ships used in the Russian and Iranian oil trade have led to renewed volatility in recent weeks, particularly in the large crude tanker sizes as China and India imported more crude oil from the Atlantic basin to compensate for lower Russian and Iranian supplies.
Looking ahead, oil market fundamentals appear supportive with a combination of rising oil demand, strong non-OPEC+ supply growth, and an increase in long-haul movements from West-to-East set so boost tonne-mile demand. Furthermore, we expect tanker fleet growth to remain relatively low over the next 2-3 years due to the combination of a modest orderbook, and aging tanker fleet, and constraints over available shipyard space.
However, it is geopolitical events which will likely have the biggest influence on the direction of the tanker market in 2025, including a potential resolution to the war in Ukraine, the impact of sanctions on the “dark” fleet, the potential return of tanker transits through the Red Sea, and the impact of US tariffs / economic policy on seaborne oil trade patterns. While it is difficult to predict the outcome of these events, geopolitical uncertainty and shifting trade patterns typically lead to increased tanker market volatility.
Watch Christian Waldegrave‘s monthly tanker market update for more.
Forward Looking Statements
This content contains forward-looking statements which reflect the Company’s current views with respect to certain future events and performance, including statements regarding: tanker market fundamentals, including the balance of supply and demand in the tanker market, and spot tanker charter rates. The following factors are among those that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties, and that should be considered in evaluating any such statement: changes in spot market tanker rates; changes in the production of or demand for oil; changes in trading patterns significantly affecting overall vessel tonnage requirements; greater or less than anticipated levels of tanker newbuilding orders or greater or less than expected level of tanker scrapping; changes in applicable industry laws and regulations and the timing of implementation of new laws and regulations; changes in the typical seasonal variations in tanker charter rates and other factors discussed in Teekay Tankers’ filings from time to time with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, including its most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F and subsequent Reports on Form 6-K for the quarterly periods ended thereafter. The Company expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to release publicly any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect any change in the Company’s expectations with respect thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based.